๐ Short-Term Outlook on U.S. AI Stocks: NVDA, AMD & MSFT
1. Nvidia (NVDA)
Current Price: $164.92
Momentum & Analyst Views: Nvidia recently crossed the $4 trillion market cap milestone on July 9, 2025, fueling excitement . Technicals remain bullish with short‑ and long‑term moving averages suggesting continued upside, and a 3‑month projected gain of ~54% to a range of $239–271 .
Analyst Targets: Consensus is a “Strong Buy” with average 12‑month price targets between $176–$177 (~7–8% upside), though bulls expect up to $250 .
Risks to Monitor: Export restrictions on AI chips to China could impact revenue—Nvidia disclosed a $5.5 billion charge due to H20 chip reserve build-up .
Bottom Line: Technical indicators and fundamental drivers (massive AI demand, Blackwell rollout) support continued short-term gains. Watch for macro shifts like chip export curbs.
2. AMD (AMD)
Current Price: $146.42
Catalysts: HSBC recently upgraded AMD to “Buy” and raised its price target to $200 (~40% upside), praising the new Instinct MI350 chips as performance rivals to Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs . These chips offer substantial power improvements and may boost earnings in 2025–26.
Institutional Interest: HSBC highlighted OpenAI’s use of MI400 chips and strong demand from hyperscalers .
Risks: Export restrictions also apply here, though AMD expects a smaller $800 million hit . Past concerns from BofA remain, citing Nvidia’s edge with hyperscalers .
Bottom Line: The upgrade and chip rollouts fuel optimism. Short-term rally potential hinges on continued AI deployment and mitigated export policy impact.
3. Microsoft (MSFT)
Current Price: $503.32
Growth Engine: Microsoft’s Azure unit—key for AI infrastructure—is expected to grow ~28.6% YoY in 2025, outpacing both AWS and GCP .
AI Spend Wave: Investment in AI data centers by hyperscalers like Microsoft is projected to exceed $325 billion in 2025 .
Bottom Line: While not a pure-play chip stock, Microsoft is well-positioned as an essential AI platform play. Its stock may benefit indirectly as market attention on AI grows.
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๐ Summary Table
Stock Current Price Upside Potential Primary Drivers Risks
NVDA $164.92 ~7–8% to mid‑$170s; bull case ~$250 Blackwell GPUs; tech momentum U.S. export restrictions; macro volatility
AMD $146.42 ~40% to $200 Instinct MI350/MI400 launch; analyst upgrade Export limitations; Nvidia’s dominance
MSFT $503.32 AI infrastructure growth Robust Azure growth; cloud AI demand Broader market fluctuations
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๐ Near-Term Outlook & Strategy
1. Bullish scenario: Continued chip demand, supportive policy (e.g. expanded semiconductor tax credits), and solid earnings could propel NVDA toward $180–200 and AMD toward $160–180 in the next 4–8 weeks.
2. Caution: Any escalation in U.S.–China tensions or new chip export bans could cause abrupt pullbacks across both NVDA and AMD.
3. Tactical moves:
NVDA: Buying on dips to moving average supports (~$160–$165) with stop-loss below could be prudent.
AMD: Entry near $140–145 may capture the momentum if MI350 rollout gains traction.
MSFT: A more stable play—consider as a “halo” AI exposure with lower beta.
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Conclusion:
The near-term outlook for AI chipmakers remains bullish, driven by analyst upgrades, technical momentum, and surging demand. Nvidia leads, but AMD offers more asymmetric upside post-HSBC upgrade. Microsoft delivers steady AI platform exposure. However, watch export policy developments—any escalation could shake AI stock valuations abruptly.
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