18. Real-Time AI Market Making for Retail
Introduction
Market making—quoting bid/ask spreads to capture the spread—has traditionally been institutional. AI can help retail participants, but challenges remain.
Mechanics
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Quote Optimization: AI forecasts short-term mid-price movements and dynamically adjusts spreads.
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Inventory Management: Limits on net position (e.g., ±100 shares) to control directional risk.
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Latency: Retail connectivity is slower than co-located institutional systems.
Building a Simulator
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Historical Tick Data: Use tick-level data to simulate quoting logic.
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Model Training: Train a regression model to predict 1-minute price drift.
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Strategy Logic: Tighten spreads when predicted drift is low; widen when volatility spikes.
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Fee and Rebate Modeling: Incorporate exchange fees/rebates into profitability calculations.
Reality Check
Simulations show that, after fees and latency, retail market makers often face razor-thin margins—success hinges on ultra-low fees and fast execution.
Conclusion
While theoretically possible, retail AI market making requires sophisticated infrastructure and cost advantages to be truly profitable.
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